Record 004 · Canada–U.S. trade
What the two countries actually sell each other.
“They need us. We don't need them.”
Donald Trump · Remarks published by the New York Post · September 3, 2026. Further clips below, each with its own speaker and source.
They do most of their business with us. I've heard numbers 95 percent. But they need us. We don't need them. They've taken advantage of us for years, and it's time to stop. We can't lose 60 to 100 billion dollars a year for the privilege of allowing them to make cars. We don't want their cars.
Canada charges us 250% for our milk product and other product, and a tremendous tariff on lumber and things as such. And yet we don't need their lumber. We have more lumber than they do. We don't need Canada's lumber. But we'll be doing that. We don't need trees from Canada. We don't need cars from Canada. We don't need energy from Canada. We don't need anything from Canada.
Canada and China have been the two worst countries when it comes to trade policy anywhere in the world. What a shame that is.
By the U.S. government's own count, U.S. goods and services trade with Canada totalled an estimated US$872.3 billion in 2025. In 2024 Canada was the top destination for U.S. exports and the third-largest source of U.S. imports.
The U.S. goods deficit with Canada was US$48.3 billion in 2025, and the United States ran a US$27.7 billion services surplus with Canada the same year. Netting the two USTR figures gives a combined deficit of about US$20.6 billion — below the "60 to 100 billion dollars a year" in the clip.
The USTR says Canada sends over three-quarters of its goods exports to the United States; the clip says 95 percent. Statistics Canada's reconciled bilateral series puts 2025 Canadian goods exports to the U.S. at C$555.4 billion and imports from the U.S. at C$474.0 billion. Every figure here carries its metric, period, currency and basis.
On "we don't need energy, lumber or cars from Canada": the U.S. Energy Information Administration calls Canada the largest source of U.S. energy imports, US$124 billion of them in 2024; about 80 percent of U.S. softwood lumber imports come from Canada; and vehicles are among the leading exports in both directions. On "250% for our milk": that is the range of Canada's over-quota dairy tariff. Within the quota, U.S. milk enters Canada free under the U.S. tariff treatment.
Each block answers one question: what does this source establish?
Evidence 01
U.S. statistics, U.S. dollars, calendar 2025: goods exports to Canada US$333.6 billion, goods imports from Canada US$381.9 billion. The USTR reports the resulting deficit, US$48.3 billion, as a 21 percent decrease (US$12.9 billion) from 2024. The clip's "60 to 100 billion dollars a year" does not match the goods figure, and no USTR figure reaches it.
Evidence 02
U.S. services exports to Canada were US$92.3 billion and imports from Canada US$64.5 billion. Services are part of the same relationship and are usually left out of deficit claims. Netting the USTR's goods deficit against its services surplus gives a combined balance of about US$20.6 billion in Canada's favour; that arithmetic is ours, the inputs are the USTR's.
Evidence 03
The USTR: Canada "exported over three-quarters of its goods to the United States" and imports about half of its goods from it. The clip says 95 percent. The USTR page does not support that figure for goods; it also does not publish a combined goods-and-services share.
Evidence 04
The U.S. Energy Information Administration: "Canada is the largest source of U.S. energy imports and the second-largest destination for U.S. energy exports behind only Mexico." In 2024 the United States imported US$124 billion of energy from Canada and exported US$27 billion to it; total two-way energy trade was an estimated US$137 billion in 2025 after lower crude prices. The clip says "we don't need energy from Canada"; the record shows what the United States buys.
Evidence 05
Natural Resources Canada, for 2020: the United States imported over half of Canada's softwood lumber production, and about 80 percent of U.S. softwood lumber imports came from Canada. "Canada is the primary supplier of softwood lumber products imported by the U.S." Whether the United States could replace that supply domestically is a forecast, not a fact on the record.
Evidence 06
The USTR: "The United States' leading exports to Canada are vehicles, machinery, and energy products" and "Canada's leading exports to the United States are energy products and vehicles." The two countries' automotive supply chains are integrated; the USTR describes "a long history of supply chain integration, including especially in the automotive and textile industries and the energy sector."
Evidence 07
Canada's Customs Tariff for 2026, Chapter 4: milk under tariff item 0401.10.10, "Within access commitment", carries a 7.5% general rate with the United States Tariff treatment listed as Free; the same milk "Over access commitment" (0401.10.20) is 241% but not less than $34.50 per hectolitre. Over-access rates across the dairy chapter range from 201.5% to 313.5%. Global Affairs Canada explains the mechanism: a pre-determined volume enters at the lower within-access rate; imports above it face the higher rate. USMCA set the U.S. within-quota volumes — for example 50,000 metric tons of fluid milk by year six, growing one percent a year. So "250%" describes the over-quota rate, not the rate on U.S. dairy that enters within the quota.
Evidence 08
Exports plus imports, U.S. statistics, U.S. dollars, calendar 2025. The USTR reports the total was down 4.6 percent (US$42.1 billion) from 2024.
Evidence 09
The USTR's own description of the relationship. The United States sells more to Canada than to any other country.
Evidence 10
Table 12-10-0005-01, balance-of-payments basis, Canadian dollars, sum of the four quarters of 2025 (released July 7, 2026). The same table shows the customs-basis figures (C$564.6 billion and C$361.7 billion) and the U.S.-dollar equivalents; the bases differ in how goods are attributed and valued, which is why the numbers do not match one another or the USTR's.
Evidence 11
The bilateral table carries the same flows as recorded by each country and a "Difference between Canadian and American statistics" series. Comparing a Canadian-dollar Statistics Canada figure with a U.S.-dollar USTR figure as if they were one metric is an error the record avoids.
What the evidence does not establish
Whether either country "needs" the other, or whether a trade balance amounts to "taking advantage." Those are judgments; the figures above are arithmetic. Whether the United States could replace Canadian energy, lumber or vehicles from domestic supply is a forecast the record does not make. The claim that Canada "took 20% of our car industry" is not addressed here: no authoritative source has been checked for it yet.
Office of the United States Trade Representative
Canada — U.S.–Canada trade facts (2025 estimates, U.S. dollars)
"U.S. goods and services (exports plus imports) trade with Canada totaled an estimated $872.3 billion in 2025, down 4.6 percent ($42.1 billion) from 2024." Goods exports $333.6 billion; goods imports $381.9 billion; goods deficit $48.3 billion; services surplus $27.7 billion. "In 2024, Canada was the top destination for U.S. exports and the third-largest source of U.S. imports."
View original →Statistics Canada
Table 12-10-0005-01 — Canada and United States bilateral trade in goods, customs and balance of payments basis, by currency and direction of trade, quarterly (× 1,000,000)
Released 2026-07-07. 2025 figures below are the sum of the four 2025 quarters, balance-of-payments basis, Canadian dollars. The table also carries the same flows in U.S. dollars and on a customs basis, and a "Difference between Canadian and American statistics" series.
View original →U.S. Energy Information Administration
Today in Energy — Canada is the largest source of U.S. energy imports (June 5, 2020)
"Canada is the largest source of U.S. energy imports and the second-largest destination for U.S. energy exports behind only Mexico." Covers crude oil, petroleum products, natural gas and electricity.
View original →U.S. Energy Information Administration
Today in Energy — Last year's U.S.–Canada energy trade was valued around $150 billion (July 30, 2025)
"Most of the U.S.-Canada trade value is U.S. energy imports from Canada—$124 billion in 2024—rather than from U.S. energy exports to Canada, which totaled $27 billion last year." Total 2024 energy trade an estimated $151 billion (U.S. Census Bureau data).
View original →U.S. Energy Information Administration
Today in Energy — Lower crude oil prices reduced U.S.–Canada energy trade value in 2025 (July 29, 2026)
"The value of energy trade between the United States and Canada fell by 11% in 2025 to an estimated $137 billion." Most of that value is U.S. energy imports from Canada.
View original →Natural Resources Canada
Canada's softwood lumber industry
For 2020: "the U.S. imported over 50% of Canada's softwood lumber production"; "about 80% of U.S. softwood lumber imports came from Canada"; "Canada is the primary supplier of softwood lumber products imported by the U.S."
View original →Canada Border Services Agency
Customs Tariff 2026 — Chapter 4: Dairy produce
Tariff item 0401.10.10, milk "Within access commitment": 7.5%, with UST (United States Tariff) and other preferential treatments listed as Free. Item 0401.10.20, "Over access commitment": 241% but not less than $34.50/hl. Over-access rates across the chapter run from 201.5% to 313.5%.
View original →Global Affairs Canada
Canada's supply-managed tariff rate quotas (TRQs)
"…tariff rate quotas (TRQs) which allow for the import of a pre-determined volume at lower (within-access) rate of duty. Imports over these pre-determined volumes are normally subject to higher rates of duty."
View original →Office of the United States Trade Representative
USMCA fact sheet — Agriculture: Market Access and Dairy Outcomes
Lists the new Canadian tariff-rate quota volumes for U.S. dairy under USMCA, e.g. fluid milk 50,000 metric tons by year six, cheese 12,500 MT, growing one percent a year for a further 13 years. "All food and agricultural products that have zero tariffs under NAFTA will remain at zero tariffs."
View original →Last checked:
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